PUTIN AND RUSSIA'S NEW AGENDA
Russia occupies a unique geopolitical position. It abuts most of the important regions of the Eastern Hemisphere, including Western Europe and the oil-rich Middle East. It is a prime exporter of the arms and energy many of these regions desire. Such a position enables President Putin to focus his foreign policies on ways to increase Russia's prestige and power. While abroad, Putin speaks about advancing economic reform and attracting foreign investment; at home, he talks about the "dictatorship of law" and strengthening the Russian state. As Michael McFaul of the Carnegie Endowment points out, Putin wears two hats: one when he speaks to the Russian people and another when he addresses foreign audiences. It is an ability that must not be underestimated by the new Bush Administration.
Vladimir Putin began a whirlwind foreign policy offensive to improve Russia's status in the region and the world even before he became president of Russia on May 7, 2000. After becoming prime minister in August 1999, for example, he met with President Clinton five times. As acting president, he met with British Prime Minister Tony Blair in St. Petersburg on March 11, 2000. Since becoming president, he has visited the major Western European countries, including Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. He has visited China, Japan, Mongolia, and the two remaining Marxist-Leninist countries, North Korea and Cuba. And he has made appearances in the Central Asian states of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, hoping to enhance Russia's status in this energy-rich region. This is an impressive itinerary for Putin's first year in office. This initiative extends to officials within his administration as well, as the recent meetings in Moscow of high-ranking national security officials from Russia with similar officials from Iran and Iraq show.
Putin's effort to enhance Russia's position includes a promise to increase substantially the sales of Russian oil, natural gas, and electricity to Europe. Moreover, to gain a louder voice in European security policy,the Putin administration has broached the idea of joining the controversial European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) initiative, a joint military structure for the European Union (EU) that some countries hope will counterbalance America's role in European security in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Putin is using arms sales to boost Russia's influence as well, signing large deals in 2000 with China, India, and Iran that total almost $10 billion. Weapons sales generate revenue for Moscow to use in the strategic modernization of Russia's aging military forces; they also strengthen Russia's influence in important (and volatile) areas such as the Taiwan Strait, the Kashmir region between India and Pakistan, and the Persian Gulf. While Putin has announced plans to reduce Russia's nuclear forces significantly to between 1,000 and 1,500 warheads, either in a negotiated treaty or in tandem with the United States, he strongly opposes the deployment of a national missile defense (NMD) system for America.
To strengthen his position as a global leader, Putin made appearances at the G-8 summit in Okinawa and the Millennium Summit at the United Nations in September 2000, the summits of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Moscow and Yalta, a bilateral summit with the EU in Paris, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Brunei in November. During these trips, his public relations team carefully orchestrated moves that would garner media attention. In Japan, for example, he allowed a 10-year-old Japanese girl to throw him on a mat, which charmed the Japanese public. At the G-8 summit in Okinawa, he gave the other leaders an "intelligence briefing" on North Korea based on his personal meeting with Kim Jong-Il and recommended that they stay in touch by e-mail.
Behind this public relations effort is a steely commitment to Russia's re-emergence in the "major league" of nations. The focus on Russia's strategic and economic interests covers up the inherent weakness in this approach: the Russian economy, which is based on obsolete industries and a rapidly aging population and which has contracted by more than 50 percent since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin and his administration seek an external opponent--similar to what Great Britain was for imperial Russia in the 19th century during their "Great Game" for control of Central Asia and the Caucasus--that enables them to make a show of Russia's strengths. It appears, from Russia's actions and national security and foreign policy documents, that the opponent it has chosen is the United States. Putin is campaigning for allies in this effort by making deals with states like China and India. The implications of this offensive for U.S.-Russian policy in the future can be found in the fronts on which Putin's campaign is being waged.
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